Population Estimates
by Melissa J. Churchill
1
In this chapter, I estimate the number of people who lived at Woods
Canyon Pueblo. Population size of prehistoric pueblos may be estimated
on the basis of a number of different variables, including roofed area
(LeBlanc 1971*1; Naroll
1962*1), number of rooms (Hill
1970*1), number of households (Lightfoot
1994*1), amount of roomblock rubble (Adler
1992*3; Schlanger 1987*1),
number of human burials (Cook 1972*1),
and hearth size (Ciolek-Torrello
and Reid 1974*1). Because testing at Woods Canyon Pueblo was relatively
limited, I have chosen to estimate population on the basis of (1) the
known and inferred number of rooms and (2) the number of households believed
to have been present in the village.
Population Estimates Based on the Number of Rooms
2
The remains of 21 rooms are visible on the modern ground surface
at Woods Canyon Pueblo, and the remains of many more rooms are assumed
to be beneath rubble mounds. I could not estimate population on the basis
of total area of rubble, because rubble areas were not well defined at
the site. Lipe (1995*2:1),
however, estimates that there are between 120 and 220 rooms at Woods Canyon
Pueblo; he bases this estimate on the number of kiva depressions and rubble
concentrations observed during survey. Applying Adler's
(1992*3:13) formula of 1.5 persons per surface room to this range
yields a population estimate of 180 to 330 people.
3
The actual population is believed to have been lower than that estimate
because not all of the rooms were occupied at the same time. I use figures
established by Hill (1970*1)
to infer the momentary population of Woods Canyon Pueblo, that is, the
number of people who would have lived at the site at any one time. Hill
(1970*1:75), using ethnographic evidence from historic pueblos, estimates
that 22 percent of the rooms at an occupied Pueblo village would have
been abandoned at any given time. If 22 percent of the rooms at Woods
Canyon are subtracted from the total estimate, the revised number of rooms
occupied at any one time is between 94 and 172. Thus, this method yields
a momentary population estimate of 141 to 258 people for the village.
Population Estimates Based on Number of Households
The Concept of Household
4
The household is a fundamental social unit in many cultures (Lightfoot
1994*1:145). For the purposes of this discussion, a household
is defined as a group of people who live around a common hearth (Beaglehole
1935*1:42, following Kroeber
1917*1:124) and who participate in a number of shared economic and
social activities (Varien 1999*1:16).
5
A kiva suite, as defined by Bradley
(1992*2:81), consists of a kiva and its associated surface rooms,
and it is synonymous with a unit pueblo as defined by Prudden
(1903*1). There is considerable debate about the size of the social
groups that used Pueblo II and Pueblo III kiva suites. Some researchers
argue that kiva suites were used by single households (e.g., Lightfoot
1994*1; Varien 1999*1);
others infer that kiva suites were used by several households (e.g., Lipe
1989*1:64; Rohn 1965*1,
1971*1). In most cases, the
arguments are based on the ratio of rooms to kivas. In some cliff dwellings
at Mesa Verde National Park, the room-to-kiva ratio is especially high,
and the kivas have been interpreted as having integrated multiple households
(Rohn 1965*1, 1971*1).
A low room-to-kiva ratio at tested sites in the Sand Canyon locality argues
for single-household use of kiva suites (Varien
1999*1:1819). For the purposes of this discussion, I (following
Varien 1999*1) assume that
a kiva suite is the architectural correlate of a single household.
6
In Lightfoot's (1994*1:147148)
summary of cross-cultural data and ethnographic accounts of historic pueblos
in the Southwest, he concludes that household size remains constant over
time and space. On the basis of these studies, he concludes that the size
of prehistoric Pueblo households ranged from two to 12 people and averaged
between five and eight people.
Households at Woods Canyon Pueblo
7
The number of households at Woods Canyon Pueblo can be estimated
with confidence because kiva suites, for the most part, are the most visible
architectural remains at the site. Kivas typically are marked by circular
depressions or flat areas partly surrounded by rubble. A site map prepared
before Crow Canyon began excavation (see Appendix
A) was used as a starting point for estimating the number of kiva
suites at the site. I then used what we learned from testing to refine
this estimate.
8
Crow Canyon archaeologists mapped a total of 50 probable kivas, identified
on the basis of indications visible on the modern ground surface (Database
Map 330). We tested 11 of those and found that nine of the 11
were indeed kivas (Structures 1-S, 2-S, 3-S, 4-S, 5-S, 6-S, 7-S, 8-S,
and 13-S). A tenth kiva that was buried by natural deposits and was not
visible on the surface was also exposed during testing (Structure 9-S).
9
One way to estimate how many of the possible, but untested, kivas
are actual kivas is to extrapolate from the success rate established during
testing. Nine of 11 suspected kivas were confirmed during test excavation
to be kivas. The walls of one of these (Structure 13-S), however, were
actually visible before excavation began. When this kiva is excluded from
consideration, only eight of 10 suspected kivasor 80 percentwere
identified as kivas during testing. Using an 80 percent success rate (or
a 20 percent error rate), I estimate that 32 of the 40 suspected, but
untested, kivas are in fact kivas. Adding the 10 known, tested kivas to
this figure results in a revised kiva count for the entire site of 42.
On the basis of that figure and an average of five to eight people per
household (that is, per kiva suite) (Lightfoot
1994*1:148), the population of Woods Canyon Pueblo is estimated to
have been between 210 and 336 people.
10
This estimate, however, should not be thought of as the true population,
because not all of the kiva suites are believed to have been in use at
the same time. The use life of masonry structures is estimated to have
been about 50 years (Adler 1992*3:13,
14). With one exception (Structure 2-S), evidence of extensive remodeling
was not observed in the tested kivas. Therefore, it does not appear that
the residents took great measures to extend the use life of these structures.
If Woods Canyon Pueblo was occupied throughout the Pueblo III periodroughly
a 150-year spaneach individual kiva suite would have been used for
only one-third of the total occupation. Using this figure, I calculate
a momentary population of between 70 and 112 people. If the entire site
was depopulated by A.D. 1280 instead of A.D. 1300, this population estimate
would increase slightly.
Population Growth and Decline at Woods Canyon Pueblo
11
The momentary population estimate of 70 to 112 people is a gross
figure that does not account for fluctuations in population size during
occupation. Two primary periods of occupation have been identified at
Woods Canyon Pueblo (Table 1;
also refer to "Chronology").
The first period of occupation, the early Pueblo III component, dates
from A.D. 1140 to 1225 and was centered in the canyon bottom. The second
period of occupationthe late Pueblo III componentdates from
A.D. 1225 to 1280 and was concentrated on the rim, the east talus slope,
and the upper west side. Thus, occupation started in the canyon bottom
in the mid-1100s and expanded upslope in the early 1200s. As construction
intensified in the 1200s on the slopes, at the base of the cliff, and
on the rim, occupation of the canyon bottom waned. It is not clear from
our limited testing whether the occupation of the rim complex coincided
with, or slightly postdated, the occupation of the east talus slope and
the upper west side. I consider both scenarios in my population estimates
for the late Pueblo III occupation.
12
Population estimates for the early Pueblo III occupation are derived
from the number of kiva suites in the canyon bottom. A total of 17 possible
kivas are present in this part of the site, and roomblock rubble is associated
with all of them that are visible on the modern ground surface. Allowing
for a 20 percent error rate, I estimate the total number of kiva suites,
or households, to be 14 (Table
1). Multiplying 14 households by five to eight people per household
yields an estimated population in the canyon bottom of between 70 and
112 people.
13
Population estimates for the late Pueblo III occupation are derived
from the number of kiva suites in the rim complex, the upper west side,
and the east talus slope. There are an estimated 32 kivas in these sections
of the site, and rooms, room outlines, and/or roomblock rubble are associated
with all of them. The estimated number of kiva suites, or households,
is 26 (32 minus 20 percent) (Table
1). These data can be used to estimate a population of between 130
and 208 people (five to eight people per household) for the rim complex,
the upper west side, and the east talus slope. If these estimates are
correct, the population of the village increased in the A.D. 1200s.
14
Because the occupation of the rim complex may have started slightly later
than the occupation of the upper west side and east talus slope, the population
toward the end of the site occupation might have been significantly less
than 130 to 208. There are two confirmed kiva suites or households in
the rim complex. Thus, the population estimate for the rim complex is
10 to 16 people (five to eight people per household). If the rim complex
was the last part of the site to be occupied, then only a dozen or so
people lived at the pueblo during the late 1200s. These data suggest that
the population may have peaked by the mid-1200s, then dwindled in the
late 1200s.
Summary
15
Population estimates for Woods Canyon Pueblo are based on architectural
remains visible on the modern ground surface, as well as on information
gathered during test excavations. A total maximum population of 180 to
330 people was derived from an estimate of the number of surface rooms
at the site, and a similar estimate of 210 to 336 people was calculated
from the number of households, as inferred from the number of kivas. Both
estimates relied heavily on the number of likely kivas present. Although
these figures suggest that the upper possible limit of population at Woods
Canyon Pueblo was between 200 and 350 people, it is important to recognize
that the number of people living at the site at any one timethat
is, the momentary populationwould have been less. Calculated on
the basis of the number of rooms believed to have been occupied at any
one time, the momentary population of Woods Canyon is estimated to have
been between 141 and 258. Calculated on the basis of the estimated number
of households and the estimated use life of a kiva suite, the momentary
population is estimated to have been between 70 and 112 people. Thus,
70 to 258 people might have lived at the site at any one time.
16
Woods Canyon Pueblo was probably a village starting in the early
Pueblo III period (a village is defined as a settlement containing more
than 50 contemporaneous structures and typically occupied by 10 or more
households [Lipe and Ortman 2000*1:92]).
The physical extent of the village increased over time, as did the number
of structures, suggesting an increase in population through much of the
site's history. The momentary population for the early Pueblo III (A.D.
11401225) occupation in the canyon bottom is estimated to have been
between 70 and 112 people. The population increased as occupation shifted
to the east talus slope, the upper west side, and the rim complex in the
1200s. The momentary population estimate for the late Pueblo III occupation
(A.D. 12251280) is 130 to 208 people.1
By the late 1200s, the population may have dwindled to only 10 to 16 people
living in the rim complex. The size of the village probably never exceeded
approximately 250 people.
17
When did the residents leave Woods Canyon Pueblo? A case can be
made for either of two scenarios. First, it is possible that most of the
population left at about the same time during the late 1200s. If so, Woods
Canyon Pueblo was a sizable village up until that point. Alternatively,
the decline in population at the pueblo might have been more gradual,
as indeed it may have been in the region as a whole (see Duff
and Wilshusen [2000*1] for a discussion of the regional emigrations
from the Mesa Verde region in the mid- to late 1200s), with people starting
to leave as early as the mid-1200s, and only a few remaining by the late
1200s.
1Previous population estimates for Woods Canyon Pueblo (calculated by Adler and Johnson [1996*1:262]) overestimated the number of people living at the site during the A.D. 12501280 time period because it was assumed that all structures at the site dated to that time period.
Copyright © 2002 by Crow Canyon Archaeological Center. All rights reserved.