Pueblo farmers of the US Southwest need to plan for spatially and temporally unpredictable rainfall typical of the region to ensure success of their crops. Archaeologists have observed many risk-mitigating strategies in the archaeological record, including drawing upon social networks in time of need, hunting and gathering of wild resources, and storing surplus food to help ensure food security. This presentation will introduce the research of the Long-Term Vulnerability and Transformation Project, led by Dr. Peggy Nelson at Arizona State University, and focus on how ancient Pueblos may have drawn upon various strategies to mitigate risk and how those strategies may have been stressed in times of changing climate. We model how changing climate may have driven changes to these spatial and temporal rainfall patterns, so important to Pueblo agricultural fields, potentially affecting the reliability of major strategies used to reduce risk. We then explore how these climate-driven changes may relate to archaeologically observed social transformations in the Salinas and Cibola regions.